Gary Ablett Jnr – from God’s son to Jesus, and how one final stand may cement something special

It was a sight seen by many before.

A fast few handballs means the glistening yellow Sherrin finds its way out of the centre stoppage. Despairing Brisbane players lunge for an arm to hold, a torso to cling onto to prevent the following play. But they can’t resist it; the flanker is up at the contest and is pumping his legs in full flight by the time the ball falls into his possession. The rest, like a jungle chase between predator and prey, is over quickly. The flanker dashes towards the arc, steadying and slamming the footy in a high parabola towards the goals. It hangs in the air, time suspended while mouths sit agape in the stands. Time speeds back up, and the Sherrin flies home for a goal.

Gary Ablett Jnr has made a career of these jaw-dropping moments. Ever since coming into the league with his mane of long hair and withering pace out of centre bounces, he has wowed opponents and crowds in equal doses. Now, he only has one more game to dazzle before one of the greatest careers in VFL/AFL history comes to a close.

Ablett was born into football success. When he first entered the world, his arrival culminated with the peak of another career. In 1984 Gary Ablett Snr began to sparkle. By the end of the ‘80s, he was the superstar of a competition that had expanded across the country. His weekly feats defied physics and rules; his famous nine-goal effort in the 1989 Grand Final proved he was a rare talent.

He may have been too young to comprehend what he was witnessing, but Ablett Jnr was there every step of the way. It makes perfect sense that young Gary’s career would centre around Geelong’s Kardinia Park; only his years in the Gold Coast saw him separated from his home. While his father shot into the ‘90s with the same record-breaking prowess, Gary and brother Nathan were constants at training and game-days. Some of Ablett Snr’s teammates recall Gary and Nathan running through the rooms barefoot and demanding kick-to-kicks. Some would label them pests – but not within earshot of Geelong’s champion player.

Young Gary’s prime years haunting Geelong players coincided with his father’s peak. No one could stop ‘God’ on the way to three consecutive Coleman Medals and some cherished finals memories. The only thing Ablett Snr couldn’t do was will the Cats to a drought-breaking premiership. Having witnessed this, the son of God took it upon himself to finish his father’s mission.

Ablett Jnr played his junior footy at Modewarre – a country town outside of Geelong where he was born. He elevated through the ranks until selected for the Geelong Falcons Under-18 program in the TAC Cup. This choice was met with scrutiny from parents and teammates; it was only general manager Mick Turner who stuck by Ablett Jnr’s presence and ensured he featured in the 2001 season. In a career now famous for churning out star players, Turner made another great move when he backed in young Gary.

As a bottom-age player and with a wealth of followers religiously chasing the Ablett name, the son of God faced plenty of pressure. 2001 was the type of year that could make or break Ablett Jnr’s career; with such expectation surrounding his name, one bad game could see the Ablett thread unravel.

But Gary was cut from a different cloth. In the first of many times where he seemed to defy all pressure, Ablett Jnr was good enough to feature for Vic Country in the mid-season National Championships. A few months later he made the decision to nominate in the draft a year early alongside a bevy of stellar names.

The 2001 national draft is now an immensely popular class. It is arguably the greatest assortment of young talent the game has seen, giving many clubs All-Australians, Brownlow Medallists, Norm Smith Medallists and vital cogs in premiership sides. In the five rounds of selections, 18 players would receive premiership medals during their careers. Ablett, as an under-age rookie, was left behind the names of Hodge, Ball and Judd until pick 40, where Geelong snared him as a highly-touted father-son pick.

Both Hawthorn and St Kilda would argue they ‘won’ the 2001 draft, but in the decade that followed Geelong ensured they settled the debate. Alongside Ablett, Jimmy Bartel, Steve Johnson and James Kelly all walked through the doors. 19 years later, they share three Brownlow Medals, two Norm Smith Medals and (sans Ablett) three premierships.

Ablett celebrating the 2007 flag with his brother (Herald Sun)

Many expected Ablett Jnr to be slotted in the Reserves for numerous years before he bulked up and developed his craft as a wiry small forward. But Geelong had faith in their youngsters, and Ablett was given games in the 2002 season. This confidence boost gave Ablett the ability to return to the Reserves and become a vital player in their VFL premiership, meaning young Gary received another shot in the Seniors when 2003 rolled around.

In those days, the flowing hair and galloping stride of Ablett lent him to a high-pressure small forward. With a slight frame that would catapult into contested situations, Gary didn’t take long to solidify his spot as a forward-come-midfielder. But the frustrating lack of finals success in the ensuing years left a stale feeling permeating through Geelong.

The change

It may eternally live on as a very dark night for the Geelong Football Club. Nick Davis’ last quarter antics in the 2005 Semi-final led the Swans on a barnstorming September run that ended with a drought-breaking premiership. But if it hadn’t happened, the following years could have panned out very differently.

It was after this heartbreaking loss that hard truths emerged. Ablett was told he didn’t work hard enough and was wasting an opportunity to become one of the greats. In the drastic next season, he slowly built his aerobic capacity and became an instrumental goal-kicking midfielder for the Cats.

His improvement culminated in the 2007 season. With coach Mark ‘Bomber’ Thompson staving off calls for his sacking, he instilled in the maturing Cats an attacking brand of footy where backwards handballs fed runners streaking down the middle. With such firepower across the ball, Geelong romped to the minor premiership through fierce corridor-based footy. Ablett was central to this – his prowess with ball in hand made him the key instigator of goals. But now he had added a gritty in-and-under aspect to his game that led Geelong into a Grand Final. His final quarter stoppage goal against Collingwood in the Preliminary Final is one of many great Ablett moments, his shoulders hunching over the footy as he curled home the match-winner in front of the Punt Road End.

The Cats would go on to break their own drought, while Ablett would narrowly miss out on a Brownlow Medal to teammate Jimmy Bartel. In doing so, Ablett had done what his father never could. If Ablett Snr was God, his progeny was fast becoming Jesus.

The next few years produced one of the better runs of footy from a single side; the Cats dominated all of 2008 only to fall at the final hurdle (Ablett was stiff not to become one of the rare players to win a Norm Smith Medal in a losing effort) and then attone in 2009 (where his delivery to the goalsquare in the final minutes led to Paul Chapman’s flag-clinching snap). In that second premiership year, he finally landed his first Brownlow Medal. Unfortunately, it was all too good to last for long.

Moving on up

It came not long after the 2010 Preliminary Final. Rapturous Pies fans trickled out of the Ponsford Stand and onto the concourse. Whispers soon flew around, feeding satisfied Collingwood supporters who would then belt it out.

“Ablett’s leaving!”

The secret was confirmed in the off-season, and Gary was abandoning his spiritual home. The lure of captaincy and a glorious pay packet on the sunny Gold Coast was a deal too good to refuse. In the next seven seasons, Ablett’s ability and will was deeply tested by the shoddy start-up effort made by the Gold Coast Suns.

A new number and a new era up north (Image: Dan Peled/ AAP)

Some interesting recruiting and a mediocre environment meant the pressure was eternally placed on Ablett’s shoulders. The little master did all he could; taking home the 2013 Brownlow Medal to add to his collection. He was on track to win it in 2014 too, as his golden form led the Suns towards a potential finals berth. But his body was beaten up by the double tags placed on him. Shoulders soon gave way and injuries marred his remaining years at Gold Coast. At the end of the 2017 season, Ablett wanted out, back down to the familiar barricades of what was soon to be renamed GMHBA Stadium. It took an administrative struggle between agents and the Suns, but Ablett soon got his wish.

One goal in mind

Gary Ablett Jnr didn’t return to Geelong for simple sentimentality. For many in the football community, it was a wholesome full circle moment, of Simba returning to the tribe and resting atop Pride Rock. He was no longer the best footballer in the League, but he had a final play in mind that would satisfy his incredible career.

Geelong had gone through nearly a decade of being perennial bridesmaids. Ever since Chris Scott cracked through to lead the Cats to the 2011 flag in his first season, his sides were consigned to gut-wrenching Preliminary Final losses. By the end of the decade, Geelong were scoffed at, never taken seriously in finals.

Ablett returned to Geelong with a final fairytale in mind (SEN)

After last year’s dismal second half capitulation to the firing Tigers, Ablett chose to stay on for another season. His final campaign, in the craziest of circumstances, has reverted back to the early days of 2003. In 2020, Ablett has nested himself deep in the forward line, kicking clever goals and having brief runs through the midfield when required. It is this role that killed the Lions last week – Ablett the forward pocket is already an intimidating match-up, but when he is able to waltz up the ground and waddle back down with the footy only to slam goals through from beyond the arc, he is nigh on impossible to stop.

Personally, Ablett’s career is undervalued. There are constant comparisons to Chris Judd and other members of that 2001 draft. But he stands alone, both statistically and in regards to his impact. Ablett has always been a wizard. Firing under the most difficult of circumstances. Under the pressure of a Geelong community who followed him from adolescence. He entered the AFL with expectations as high as can be, which is customary when your father has enjoyed one of the greatest careers ever witnessed. When Ablett Jnr causes a moment of pause in the debate between father and son, it means he has done something no one else has. He has matched his father. If he can lead the Cats to an emotional triumph on Saturday night, he may leave the game with one final sparkling moment, one last mind-blowing goal. But he may also depart having put together the best career in recent memory, even better than that of God’s.

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AFL 2020 Week 3 Finals Review, Grand Final Preview – A potential classic

The weekend began with two massive match-ups, and ended in two upsets. After a tumultuous season, Richmond and Geelong defied all odds to claim Grand Final spots and establish one of the more intriguing clashes in recent history.

First Preliminary Final

Port Adelaide 6.4 (40) defeated by Richmond 6.10 (46)

Young Power players turn it on

It was a high-pressure game that took its toll on seasoned stars. Instead of Tom Rockliff, Ollie Wines and Travis Boak bullying the sleeker Tigers, wiry youngsters in Xavier Duursma and Connor Rozee shone.

Port Adelaide have been underrated all year, and only in this finals series have they proven how strong and versatile they are. Charlie Dixon was well-held by Noah Balta all night, with Dylan Grimes lending terrific support, but Port kept finding avenues to goal. With Port’s other big men struggling in the slippery conditions, Rozee was the livewire up forward. His two goals exhilarated the crowd and kept Port on top in a tiring first half.

Richmond do just enough, again

The Tigers found themselves in a hole yet again. Every season they slip behind in certain times and rally in dramatic circumstances. Last season they were well behind the Cats, only to rally behind Tom Lynch and fire their way into another Grand Final. This preliminary final was their big challenge, having to travel to the minor premiers and take on a seasoned Port outfit.

Dusty led his Tigers in foreign territory (Image by News Corp Australia)

With the match in the balance at the start of the final term, it was Dustin Martin and Shane Edwards who had controlled the middle. They needed help, and the answer came from Toby Nankervis and Kane Lambert. Nankervis lifted to a new level, taking vital marks and beating Scott Lycett around the ground. Lambert booted two handy majors, one coming from a controversial deliberate out of bounds call. In a frantic finish, Richmond did everything to hold on.

In a rugged season, it’s a remarkable effort. Once again, the Tigers got out of jail and secured one of their great finals wins to book a shot at back-to-back flags.

Verdict: Port didn’t lose any fans after a great effort, but Richmond deserve all credit for a brave win.

Second Preliminary Final

Brisbane 6.6 (42) defeated by Geelong 11.16 (82)

Too much to carry

Brisbane have had a wonderful season, but their young list may not be quite ready for premiership glory. In front of a packed home crowd willing them towards a Grand Final, the Lions did everything they could to match it with the seasoned Cats.

Despite being outplayed by Geelong in the first quarter, Charlie Cameron took advantage of his mis-match on Jake Kolodjashnij, kicking two early goals to thrill the crowd. But when Chris Scott switched Jed Bews onto him, the Lions forward line lacked potency.

Tom Stewart, Lachie Henderson and Harry Taylor all worked to lock down Lincoln McCarthy, Eric Hipwood and Dan McStay, and without these contributors the Brisbane midfield was left with too much to do. Lachie Neale, Jarryd Lyons and Dayne Zorko did everything possible to turn the tide, but Brisbane’s young stars who had evened out their list couldn’t lift when it countered. Unfortunately, only Daniel Rich and Harris Andrews thwarted consistent Geelong attacks. The Lions have the game and the effort to win a flag, but they need more contributors across the park. It may come with natural development, or from a prize recruit.

The Cats celebrated an away win (Image by AAP/ Dave Hunt)

Cats solid across the board

It was a performance Geelong signalled at the start of the season. It had taken time, but finally Mitch Duncan, Cam Guthrie and Sam Menegola were all ready to consistently shoulder the load, leaving elders Selwood and Ablett to manage their bodies and roam where they pleased. After out-classing Collingwood last week, the Cats turned up the pressure and quickly disarmed Brisbane’s potent midfield. Brandan Parfitt was key – the emerging ball-winner dominated.

This consistency allowed Patrick Dangerfield and Ablett to swing forward, making their attacking group deadly. Ablett lit up the park in the third term with two thrilling goals that pushed the margin away from Brisbane’s reach, while Dangerfield freed up Tom Hawkins and Gary Rohan to pounce.

In defence, nothing could get past the Cats. With Mark Blicavs occasionally being tossed back to help out, they have a perfect mix ready to entertain the Tigers. If they copy this effort, they are an incredibly hard team to beat.

Verdict: Brisbane aren’t far away, but lack the reliability that comes with experience. Geelong are in-form and have a golden chance to send Ablett off in style.

Grand Final

Saturday 7.30PM

The Gabba

Richmond v Geelong

Can Geelong’s defence make one final stop?

For the majority of the year the Cat’s back line has been remarkably sturdy. With the likes of Bews and Mark O’Connor solidifying their spots to aid Stewart and co, their defensive unit has managed to pull off some great finals wins. They are adaptable and reliable, but how do they go against the strongest forward line in the game?

Harry Taylor and Henderson are perfect match-ups for Riewoldt and Lynch, but they will cherish the third tall intercept option that Blicavs can bring. Kolodjashnij should be the preferred candidate to take Martin when he ventures forward, while Bews and O’Connor will have their hands full trying to stop Jason Castagna and Daniel Rioli from getting off the chain.

Dusty v Danger

It’s the mouth-watering battle we’ve all wanted to see for some time. Martin is arguably the best finals performer of the past few years – he now gets the chance to go for a record-breaking third Norm Smith Medal. But he will face sterner opposition with Dangerfield raring to perform in his first Grand Final. He has matched Dusty as the most consistent star player of the last few years (alongside Nat Fyfe), and he can now make Dusty hurt if he roams forward and kicks a bag.

Both should start in the midfield, and may go head-to-head at certain stoppages. I expect a lack of defence from these two, as they’ll instead try to get on the outside and wreak havoc across half-forward. When both go forward, Danger should be the biggest threat, but don’t doubt Dusty’s ability to kick bags of goals in massive matches.

Tom Hawkins is one key Cat in the Grand Final (Image by AAP/ Dave Hunt)

Who takes Ablett?

Despite being aged, Gary Ablett Jnr is still one of the largest threats in the game. He is a known performer in Grand Finals, having already won two flags. Now he has a chance to cap off a fairy tale finish that befits the proud Ablett name.

It’ll be interesting to see who takes Ablett down back for the Tigers. Bachar Houli may be given a chance to nullify him and then make him hurt on the rebound, but it could backfire if Houli isn’t able to roam free. If Luke Dahlhaus and Gary Rohan command attention, then Ablett may instead receive Jaidyn Short or Liam Baker with Dylan Grimes busy with other forwards.

It’s an interesting dynamic – Richmond will be relying on Geelong’s forwards, much like Gryan Miers, to have a shocker so Ablett can command all attention from Richmond’s elite defence.

Strength v athleticism

Both teams possess high amounts of pressure and work rate, but their styles in attack vary. Geelong are precise and have an amazing structure; the role players in Parfitt, Duncan, Guthrie and Menegola are all key – if they have prolific games, Geelong will have enough superiority throughout to win the crucial midfield battle.

Two other keys are Rhys Stanley and Tom Hawkins – if Stanley can match Toby Nankervis in the ruck and prevent him from taking marks around the ground then the Cats can stand taller. If Hawkins can continue to out-body opposing ruckmen in the forward line and bring Miers and co into the game then Geelong should get enough on the board to bring home a flag.

On the other hand, Richmond play with dare and spirit. They will the ball forward – a style that’ll do them well if the rain comes down. Players like Shai Bolton, Shane Edwards and Kane Lambert are key – they can become x-factors and lift to accompany Martin and Trent Cotchin on their merry way. But if Selwood and Ablett out-play these role players then Richmond may struggle to win clearances and give their potent forward line the opportunity required.

Tip: Befitting of the season, it’s a tough one to tip. If the rain comes down, the dew kicks in and the humidity is high, then Richmond will win this one. But if dries up, Geelong learn from their lessons and continue their high-pressure/ strong structure game then they might squeeze home. Cats by 10.

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AFL 2020 Week 2 Finals Review, Week 3 Finals Preview: Will the underdog Victorians shine through?

After a stunning first weekend of finals match-ups, fans were shocked by the one-sided contests seen in both semi-finals. One positive is that this upcoming round of preliminary finals should be tantalising.

First Semi Final

Richmond 12.8 (70) defeated St Kilda 6.13 (49)

Early burst and inaccuracy helps the Tigers

Hurting after a surprise loss to the Lions last week, Richmond were brutal in the first quarter. Tom Lynch was back and in form, while Shai Bolton could drift forward and curl home two majors that immediately put St Kilda on the back foot. Shane Edwards was everywhere, creating goals with deft passes and running hard all night.

Kamdyn McIntosh was one of many Tigers in form last Friday (Photo by Michael Willson/ AFL Photos/ Getty Images)

Dustin Martin continued to make the Saints pay for receiving no harsh tag, and Bachar Houli partnered superbly with Liam Baker off half-back. Their bounce was critical to the win.

But St Kilda lost no fans with a second half comeback. Despite their big outs and lack of accuracy, they seriously troubled Richmond in the final quarter and could’ve gotten over the line if they were more efficient in front of the big sticks. Jack Steele and Hunter Clark proved they’re going to be seasoned finals performers in the coming years, while Nick Coffield did all he could off half-back and Rowan Marshall dominated in the ruck. Unfortunately it wasn’t to be; everyone will be wary of the Saints next year while Richmond motor along in 2020.

Verdict: Richmond will be raring to win a big preliminary final. St Kilda can feel nothing but pride.

Second Semi Final

Geelong 15.10 (100) defeated Collingwood 5.2 (32)

Cats run amuck

Tom Hawkins led the Cats into another preliminary final (Photo by Darren England/ AAP)

This was meant to be the big contest, the blockbuster for the weekend. Fresh off a stirring western win, the Pies were supposed to be on a high. Instead, they were flat and paid dearly.

Geelong, to their credit, executed the perfect first half. Mitch Duncan, Cam Guthrie and Sam Menegola all dominated the midfield, allowing Patrick Dangerfield to waltz forward and kick four goals. The trio smashed Collingwood in the clearances and then ran hard both ways to ensure the Pies couldn’t work the ball quickly down the middle of the Gabba.

Tom Hawkins had a superb game, while most of the Geelong forward line benefited from the barrage of balls entering their area. Tom Stewart and Lachie Henderson cleaned up the rare passes inside their defensive, allowing the seasoned Cats to attack with pace and accuracy. It may have been a dark night for Collingwood, but Geelong deserve an equal amount of praise for their systematic destruction of the black and white army.

Verdict: Geelong have a great chance to make a Grand Final, while Collingwood have an intriguing off-season ahead.

Week 3 Finals

First Preliminary Final

Friday 7.50PM

Adelaide Oval

Port Adelaide v Richmond

Can Richmond join the greats?

There’s no doubting Richmond have been the best team of the last three years. They’ve forged a dynasty based around an exhilarating system. With star-power everywhere, they now have a golden chance to solidify their greatness.

Many great teams don’t get it all their way. Geelong had to bounce back after their 2008 Grand Final upset loss. Hawthorn had to travel to Perth twice in the 2015 finals series and upset the heavily-favoured Dockers to win their third consecutive flag. For Richmond, 2020 could be the year they show how strong they are.

Port Adelaide will be raring to go – they have the right balance and a superb team. Charlie Dixon is key, as is the bounce and goal-sense of Steven Motlop. In the guts, Richmond have a harsh challenge when they face Tom Rockliff, Travis Boak and Ollie Wines. Personally, the two keys for Port are Scott Lycett and Zak Butters. The former is in great form and can destroy Richmond’s vulnerable ruck stocks if he makes himself dangerous up forward. Butters is the heartbeat of this side – if he is courageously putting his body on the line and executing one-percenters then he brings Robbie Gray and Connor Rozee into the game.

Is it Port Adelaide’s time? (Photo by David Mariuz/ AAP)

For Richmond, Dustin Martin, Jack Graham and Dion Prestia must all be strong in the middle if they are to win the clearances. The Tigers need Noah Balta and Dylan Grimes to hold their own down back so Jack Riewoldt can get into the game if they are to kick a winning score.

Tip: I could easily see Richmond winning this. It’s a massive danger for the Power, but they have the team to do it. After a sapping game last week, I’m going with the Power to get over their nerves and just get over the line. Port by 7.

Second Preliminary Final

Saturday 7.40PM

The Gabba

Brisbane v Geelong

The youth or the bridesmaids?

It has to be Geelong’s time, or else there’s trouble. A first up loss to Port brought the criticism out surrounding Geelong’s finals problems. But last week saw a heavy change from the Cats; they looked sure and structurally sound in dismantling the Pies.

The pressure is on Brisbane. Beating Richmond in finals gives you some momentum, but they now must recreate the same pressure and efficiency if they are to dispose of the Cats. Lachie Neale, Jarryd Lyons and Hugh McCluggage must all be consistent if they are to break down Geelong’s bounty of midfielders. Eric Hipwood and Charlie Cameron have to become dynamic and dangerous, or else the pressure falls onto Lincoln McCarthy and Cam Rayner. The match-up of the game is Tom Hawkins against Harris Andrews.

The Lions must withstand the pressure if they are to make a home Grand Final (Photo by Darren England/ AAP)

The Cats must play like they did last week – if they can control the Gabba and bring their exciting forwards into the game then they are a massive chance. Rhys Stanley has had a terrific finals series, but he faces a new challenge in beating Oscar McInerney. The big key is who becomes more dangerous out of Tom Stewart and Daniel Rich – will either team put a tag on them?Tip: Brisbane have the right team to win this, and deserve to go in as favourites. Geelong can’t be trusted, but preliminary finals are for risk-takers. I’m going to take one – Cats by 15.

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AFL 2020 Week One Finals Review, Week Two Preview: An All-Victorian weekend of drama

After a year of confusion and uncertainty, the AFL Finals series exploded last weekend. A couple of heart-stoppers brought out the best in the game. Now, let’s see what the semi-finals can bring.

First Qualifying Final

Port Adelaide 9.4 (58) defeated Geelong 5.12 (42)

Brad Ebert lit the home crowd alight (Image by David Mariuz/ AAP)

The Cats are quietened

Geelong looked the goods early when Rhys Stanley got off to a flyer, but the Power worked their way in front in a gritty contest to lock in a home preliminary final.

Tom Hawkins was the big story of the night after spraying his numerous shots at goal, while Charlie Dixon had moments against Harry Taylor that revved Port Adelaide into gear. In the middle, Travis Boak and Tom Rockliff were hard and tough, while Zak Butters’ courage and ferocity at the contest set the tone for the night.

Patrick Dangerfield and Brendan Parfitt did everything they could for the Cats, but they were condemned to a cut-throat semi-final after their forward line went missing at a crucial stage. The former produced a stunning running goal to revive his side. Unfortunately, Gryan Miers, Gary Rohan and Gary Ablett all had quiet nights – a killer when Hawkins was off-target.

Butters and Ken Hinkley celebrate the win (Photo: Getty Images)

Verdict: The Power continue to float under the radar, while Geelong must fix their act fast.

Second Qualifying Final

Brisbane 10.9 (69) defeated Richmond 8.6 (54)

Lions topple the Tigers

Richmond were heavy favourites after going into the game off the back of a superb Queensland run. When Daniel Rich slammed home the game’s first goal, the home side had a reason to believe it was finally going to be their night.

Brisbane snatched the ascendancy yet couldn’t quite convert it into the killer lead they desired. Oscar McInerney was terrific in the ruck, and Charlie Cameron caught Richmond off guard when he played higher up the ground and snagged three goals following the ball back inside forward 50.

Lachie Neale rebounded after a horror first quarter, and with Hugh McCluggage dominating, the Lions grabbed the lead in the second half. Jack Riewoldt’s strong start faded, and the Tigers sorely missed Tom Lynch. Dustin Martin continued to valiantly try, but Richmond were off and couldn’t quite bridge the gap when it mattered.

Daniel Rich slams home a goal during a wonderful Brisbane night (AAP Image/Darren England)

Verdict: Brisbane are set up for a run at the flag now. Richmond weren’t expecting this, and must fight hard to win another premiership.

Second Elimination Final

St Kilda 10.7 (67) defeated Western Bulldogs 9.10 (64)

Saints hold on

In what was the first blockbuster clash of a super Saturday, these two Victorian clubs played out a memorable elimination final. Josh Bruce kicked the scoring off against his old club, but then went missing.

In the first term the Bulldogs looked the better side – Marcus Bontempelli and Jack Macrae did their usual thing, while Bailey Williams filled in for the tagged Caleb Daniel across half-back. But the Saints soon grabbed the momentum and came hitting back. Jarryn Geary did an impressive job on Daniel, becoming dangerous up forward and slotting important goals. Max King destroyed Alex Keath and the Bulldogs defence with some telling contested marks that allowed Rowan Marshall and Tim Membrey to run amuck.

Don’t undersell the performance of Dan Hannebery. All of St Kilda’s midfielders were impressive, but Hannebery did an amazing job just to get fit for the clash. His experienced touch turned forays forward into goals; he and Brad Hill were the catalysts in this tight win.

Dan Hannebery was a guiding hand in the St Kilda midfield against the Dogs (Photo by Robert Cianflone/Getty Images)

The Dogs had one last chance when Aaron Naughton began flying high, but their lack of composure in front of goal cost them. St Kilda deserved this win, but it came at a price; we won’t see Ben Long (suspension), Paddy Ryder (injury) or Jake Carlisle (personal reasons) for their semi-final showdown with the Tigers.

Verdict: A wonderful night for long-suffering St Kilda fans. A frustrating end to the season for Bulldogs fans who expected more.

First Elimination Final

West Coast 11.9 (75) defeated by Collingwood 12.4 (76)

It was (Image by Daniel Carson/ AFL Photos/ Getty Images)

Upsets out west

They were written off all week. They were the ‘dirty’ Pies who were forced to shelter some club members in campervans and were treated as enemies to the state of WA all week long. All of this makes this result even more remarkable.

It all started with Mason Cox; the American cast back to memories of that 2018 preliminary final against Richmond when he clunked three marks for three goals in the space of five first quarter minutes. He settled the Pies, and a silly 50 metre penalty gave Taylor Adams another.

But Josh Kennedy, Liam Ryan and Jack Darling have a habit of performing against the Pies. They all brought the Eagles back into the contest, while Tim Kelly struggled to perform under a Levi Greenwood tag.

The game continued to go goal for goal; for periods of the second half Collingwood were just holding on under West Coast’s heavy fire. But when Darcy Cameron gave Brodie Grundy a chop out in the ruck, the midfield got on top and Adams could catapult the ball forward.

In a stunning last quarter, West Coast regained the lead before Collingwood went on a rampage. Brody Mihocek destroyed Jeremy McGovern in the final term, and Jordan De Goey popped up in the clutch moments to give Collingwood the narrowest of wins.

Verdict: That one has to hurt for Eagles fans, while Collingwood march on against all odds.

Week 2

First Semi-Final

Richmond v St Kilda

Friday 7.50PM

Metricon Stadium

The return of Lynch

It’s going to be a massive in for the Tigers.

Richmond badly missed Tom Lynch’s presence last week when Riewoldt was well-held by Harris Andrews. With Carlisle out for the Saints, Lynch will have a big chance to exploit St Kilda’s smaller defence.

He should also benefit those around him. When Martin and Shai Bolton rest forward, they will have a merry time crumbing at the feet of Lynch. It’s no secret he makes Richmond’s forward line more dynamic; can he win them another final?

Richmond must regroup if they are to avoid a straight-sets exit (Image by Michael Klein/ News Corp Australia)

Can the Saints out-run the Tigers?

St Kilda’s pace is going to be key here. When they smacked the Tigers earlier in the season they played at breakneck speed, beating Richmond for pace while being clean enough to make minimal mistakes.

The Saints, if they are to spring an almighty September upset, must take the game on. Richmond will not die wondering, so they will get a chance to hurt the Tigers on the counterattack if they are composed under pressure. Jack Steele, Zak Jones and Hunter Clark will be critical in the midfield – if they can nullify Prestia, Cotchin and Martin while exploding from stoppages, they could give their forwards enough chances to boost a winning score.

Tip: It would be terrific if the Saints can match the Tigers up at Metricon, but I just can’t see it happening. Tigers by 25.

Second Semi-Final

Geelong v Collingwood

Saturday 7.40PM

The Gabba

Are the Cats going to handle the finals heat?

Geelong have their backs to the wall. Despite performing admirably down in Adelaide last week, their shocking conversion and lack of composure in key times hurt them. Now, they must fix their poor finals record with a massive win here.

One thing going the Cats’ way is their much-improved record in semi-final clashes. They seem to play best in these cut-throat games, but they will have to find a way to slow down the Pies.

If they are to win, the likes of Cam Guthrie, Sam Menegola and Mitch Duncan must all play their part and ensure the heavy lifting isn’t left to Dangerfield and Selwood.

Pies momentum

Brody Mihocek is key to Collingwood’s chances on Saturday (Image by Daniel Carson/ Getty Images/ AFL Photos)

After such a wonderful away win, the Pies have a key chance to go on a finals fairy tale run. The main way they’ll do this is by continuing to play fast and fearless footy – the style that got them to within a whisker of the 2018 flag. Handballs and playing on can only benefit Cox and Mihocek, while De Goey can also wreak havoc up forward.

If Jordan Roughead can nullify Hawkins, Brayden Maynard and Jack Crisp could become weapons off half-back. Brodie Grundy has a prime chance to recapture form alongside Cameron – the Pies are one win away from being a massive finals threat.

Tip: The Cats could easily stamp their authority in this one, especially at the Gabba. But I’m going with the Pies for a dream run, as long as they stay fearless. Magpies by 13.

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AFL 2020 Week One Finals preview: A long weekend of exciting clashes

We’re down to crunch time. Eight teams are left after a rollercoaster season. Each side has endured through breaks, injuries and a season like no other. On Thursday, we’ll see who is good enough to triumph in the toughest of years.

First Qualifying Final

Thursday 7.40PM

Adelaide Oval

Port Adelaide v Geelong

Just a couple of months ago Geelong dismantled the Power to establish themselves as a flag chance. Now, they must do so again if they are to zip past the minor premiers into a preliminary final.

Will ghosts haunt the Power?

Port Adelaide should head in confident, having barely lost a game throughout the home and away season. Unfortunately, one of these defeats came at the hands of Geelong, when the Cats destroyed them on a Friday night up in Gold Coast.

It’s a big week for Tom Clurey. He has had a wonderful season, but his attacking instincts played straight into Coleman Medallist Tom Hawkins’ hands when they lined up on each other. Will Clurey continue to attack, or will he adjust to handle the star forward better?

The spotlight is also on Port’s midfield. They did a fantastic job all year, but they struggled when coming up against Geelong’s powerful engine room. The likes of Travis Boak and Tom Rockliff must win the ball in contested situations if they are to spread it out to good ball users and deny Patrick Dangerfield and Sam Menegola easy possessions.

This time around Port must stop Patrick Dangerfield (Image by Dave Hunt/ AAP)

Can Charlie stand up?

Charlie Dixon has had a terrific year. Without injuries weighing him down, he has soared into the All-Australian team and proved a headache for opponents.

The big question is whether Dixon can perform in finals. He has a golden opportunity, and his presence means a lot when it comes to Port’s chances. If he can get on top of Mark Blicavs and Harry Taylor, Port will have the focal point they need to score constantly and take the game away from Geelong, who have looked rusty in the last fortnight.

Tip: This is incredibly tough. It all depends on which Geelong rocks up. If they can’t find their spark, Port should win this. But if they can rediscover their damaging touch, they should book a preliminary final date. Cats by 11.

Second Qualifying Final

Friday 7.50PM

The Gabba

Brisbane v Richmond

It’s a rematch of last year’s first final, where Richmond slaughtered the Lions en route to the flag. Will the Lions be haunted by this, or will they turn the tables?

Brisbane’s midfield chance

Unlike a year ago, the talent of Lachie Neale and Jarryd Lyons has elevated to a new level in 2020. Neale is the clear Brownlow Medal favourite, while Lyons’ underrated nature nearly took him to an All-Australian selection. The pair are the beating heart of Brisbane; if they can win the contested ball and dominate the clearances, they can put Richmond on the back foot early.

To win the battle, they must out-work Dustin Martin, Dion Prestia, Shai Bolton and Trent Cotchin. Martin has been in great form, while Prestia’s return could elevate those around him to a more damaging level. It’ll be a wonderful clash, but Brisbane have the tools available to set themselves up in this massive final.

Two contrasting forward lines

The pressure is well and truly on Brisbane’s forwards. Last year’s straight sets exit cast the spotlight on their dysfunctional forward line. In 2020, Charlie Cameron hasn’t been as consistently brilliant, but Lincoln McCarthy, Eric Hipwood and Cam Rayner have all developed in some way. A more consistent spread of contributors could cover the Lions if Cameron is blanketed by Dylan Grimes.

On the other hand, Richmond must find avenues to goal without Tom Lynch. The star forward has already been ruled out, giving the returning Harris Andrews plenty of opportunity to intercept mark. The Tigers will have to enter forward 50 cleverly if they are to post a winning score.

Without Tom Lynch, can Richmond’s forward line maintain its dominance? (Image by Dave Hunt/ AAP)

Tip: Brisbane will be spewing at this match-up. They should come closer to the Tigers than last year, but Richmond are just too good and balanced. Richmond by 25.

Second Elimination Final

Saturday 4.40PM

The Gabba

St Kilda v Western Bulldogs

After jostling for finals spots in the past few weeks, these two Victorian clubs are the most likely to go on a winding run through the last month of footy. The question is which team is in better touch to win this first final and challenge the league’s top sides?

Which young forward stands tallest?

With the good news that Aaron Naughton is likely to play for the Bulldogs, his inclusion creates a tantalising battle with Saints young gun Max King. Both will line up on newly recruited defenders (Dougal Howard for Naughton, Alex Keath for King), and will have to contribute if their side is to get past week one.

King is an exciting prospect – his first year has shown maturity not normally seen by starting tall forwards. Can his polish come to the fore in finals football? Naughton has more runs on the board, having proven his strong contested marking ability for the past two years. But is he a finals star?

A couple of stars against a scary midfield group

The two on-ball brigades these teams possess are both strong in their own ways. St Kilda’s has improved remarkably after injuries to Jade Gresham and Dan Hannebery during the season. In their absence, Jack Steele, Hunter Clark and Zak Jones have been terrific; these young players can work hard and trouble the Dogs.

Zak Jones has added run to the Saints this year (Herald Sun)

But the Bulldogs have their own system. Marcus Bontempelli and Jack Macrae are the stars, but then there is Lachie Hunter, Tom Liberatore, Josh Dunkley and Bailey Smith. Their depth, even without Toby McLean, is so strong that they have been able to grow Mitch Wallis as a great small forward. The question is whether a group of midfielders can account for various stars who are emerging in front of our eyes.

Tip: This is the hardest one to pick by a long way. The Saints deserve favouritism, so I’ll go with them. But something about the Bulldogs is hard to ignore. Saints by 7.

First Elimination Final

Saturday 8.10PM

Optus Stadium

West Coast v Collingwood

This is the match-up many football fans wanted. These two teams once again clash in finals footy just two years after a pair of magnificent finals, which included one of the greatest Grand Finals of all time.

Who returns from injury?

This question mainly concerns West Coast. They have a bank of players struggling to recover in time for Saturday night – Jeremy McGovern, Josh Kennedy, Jack Redden, Luke Shuey are just a couple of names. Knowing the Eagles, they’ll manage to get them right and bring them all in to haunt the Pies, but this rushed effort, combined with West Coast’s shaky late form, isn’t inspiring for the Eagles.

On the Pies, they have integrated most of their returning players in the last couple of rounds. Brayden Sier is in the box seat for a return on the big stage, while Adam Treloar and Jordan De Goey have adjusted to footy in the latter stages of the home and away season.

Which forward line finds their balance?

A lot of this match depends on whether Collingwood, including Brodie Grundy in the ruck, can match West Coast’s and make this a contest. But if this happens, it’ll come down to which forward line is most efficient.

Grundy must nullify Nic Nat (AFL Crowcast)

West Coast’s is very makeshift – with Kennedy out, Jack Darling and Oscar Allen couldn’t flourish, while Liam Ryan was left as the main target. Up the other end, Mason Cox has found form, and the return of Jordan De Goey makes everything work better. Their main issue is finding the form of Jaidyn Stephenson, who could tear this final apart if he can boot a bag of goals.

Tip: In any other time I’d go the Eagles, as they could easily run away with this one. But something about the injuries and their recent form doesn’t convince me. Collingwood always perform best when under media pressure. Pies by 12.

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AFL 2020 Round 18 Review and a re-made All-Australian team

With one spot on the line in the final round of the abridged 2020 season, numerous teams watched on desperately as they longed for results to fall their way. The Bulldogs came out victorious, setting up a tantalising week of first-up finals matches.

ROUND 18

North Melbourne 4.10 (34) defeated by West Coast 7.7 (49)

A last hurrah

It’s safe to say this game didn’t live up to any heights. In fact, North Melbourne played the best they have for a long time – their application deserved more than a valiant loss. If they had kicked straighter, 11 careers might have been saved.

What followed was crazy – the next day the Roos delisted 11; plenty of them played against the Eagles. Ben Brown was sent to the trade table, with Shaun Higgins and Jared Polec waiting in the wings for potential deals out of Arden Street. All of this took the limelight away from the Eagles, who are in shocking form ahead of their return to Optus Stadium for their elimination final against the Pies.

Verdict: A season to forget for the Roos, yet it may be an important one in the club’s history. The Eagles have done enough all season, but must lift if they are to avoid an upset.

St Kilda 12.10 (82) defeated GWS 3.12 (30)

Sealing fate

The Saints had it easy – win and they were a lock for finals. The Giants had to do the same if they were to have a chance. In the end, GWS’ dismal season collapsed in a heap.

There’ll be questions arising the dropping of Stephen Coniglio last week, as well as the pre-emptive decision to resign Leon Cameron despite their fall from grace. Will Jeremy Cameron stay?

The Saints ran all over the Giants to confirm their finals spot (Image by Michael Klein/ News Corp Australia)

On the other hand, St Kilda now host the Dogs in a clutch final. They have rejuvenated themselves terrifically – now, how far can the Saints go in finals football? With Jack Steele firing in a wonderful season, who knows.

Verdict: The Saints deserved this after a great season. GWS are in a silent crisis.

Essendon 7.7 (49) defeated by Melbourne 10.8 (68)

Giving themselves a chance

It was a well-known equation for the Dees – win and stay in the race for eighth. Halfway through the game they looked on track to do so, with Christian Petracca and Jayden Hunt torching the Bombers.

With nothing to lose, Essendon tried to send off John Worsfold in style. They barrelled home, sending daggers of fear into Melbourne hearts as they cut the margin to within a goal. In a tight finish, Essendon didn’t quite have the drive to get over the line. Melbourne escaped, and set up a nervous Sunday night watching the Dogs.

Verdict: Essendon have an interesting off-season ahead of them, while Melbourne can take some positives out of a tough year.

Adelaide 4.9 (33) defeated by Richmond 12.5 (77)

No upset

The Crows, after a stunning September revival, looked to finish off an arduous season with one last win. Coming up against the flag favourite Tigers, they started off strong but couldn’t keep up.

It’s not all negative for Adelaide – Lachie Sholl got his Rising Star nomination after performing strongly against the reigning premiers, while Taylor Walker passed Tony Modra as Adelaide’s leading goalkicker. Richmond did what they have to do – they were their usual selves. Now, they get to cast back to 2019 with another qualifying final up at the Gabba.

Verdict: Thank god for Adelaide’s September. Richmond will be licking their lips at how the finals fixture has fallen their way.

The Tigers managed to pull in the Crows and end their winning streak (Richmond FC)

Brisbane 11.12 (78) defeated Carlton 10.1 (61)

No fairytale for Kade

There was one goal in mind for the Blues – win for Kade Simpson. The stalwart has had to play in so many losses that he deserved an upset. Brisbane weren’t willing to give it to him; Lachie Neale and Jarryd Lyons continued to control the centre and it resulted in an early barrage of goals to Lincoln McCarthy.

But the Blues came storming back, thanks to Harry McKay’s presence up forward. In a tight finish, even Simpson got on the board, but the bridge was too far for Carlton.

Verdict: The Lions continue to grind out wins at home, while Carlton now must focus on improvement in 20201.

Hawthorn 17.6 (108) defeated Gold Coast 8.9 (57)

Celebration day

One thing about Hawthorn is certain – they know how to send off their heroes well. Last year, Jarryd Roughead finished with a bang against the Suns. This season, Paul Puopolo shone one last time and Ben Stratton slammed home a rare goal to finish their careers in style.

It was Hawthorn’s day as Ben Stratton slotted a rare goal (AFL Photos)

Gold Coast looked tired after a long year for their young list. They have definitely come along, but need a summer of resting and preparing if they are to have a chance at playing finals footy in 2021. Hawthorn will no doubt enter a new phase of bringing in young guns as their premiership stars steadily wrap up their careers.

Verdict: Hawthorn still have plenty of positives, while the Suns will hopefully come back firing next year.

Sydney 9.9 (63) defeated by Geelong 10.9 (69)

Young chargers give the Cats a fright

To secure a top four spot, Geelong just had to continue performing. Yet Sydney’s second half of 2020 has been superb, and they kicked off the game quickly. Their young guns continued to fire, and pushed Geelong into lifting a gear.

The match went down to the wire, with Tom Papley constantly proving a threat to Geelong’s secure defence. But Tom Hawkins and Patrick Dangerfield created a tantalising dynamic duo up forward, and it gave Geelong enough of a score to win this one.

Verdict: Sydney will enter 2021 very confident of returning to finals action. Geelong needed this; now, they must build for a big qualifying final.

Fremantle 6.8 (44) defeated by Western Bulldogs 11.8 (74)

Win or go home

Many teams eyed this match – if the Dogs lost, Melbourne would rejoice. Collingwood wouldn’t have hated it either.

Fremantle fought hard to make this game a scrap. In greasy conditions, Caleb Serong and Nat Fyfe elevated to make it hard for the Dogs’ midfielders to win the footy. But in the second half the tides turned, and the Bulldogs found themselves dominating. Jack Macrae was unstoppable alongside Marcus Bontempelli, and the Dogs eased themselves into an elimination final.

The Dogs held firm to book a date with the Saints (SportsNews)

Verdict: The Dockers will also look for higher honours in 2021, while the Dogs have earnt their chance to fight for a flag.

Collingwood 7.3 (45) defeated by Port Adelaide 9.7 (61)

Clinching top spot

This turned out to be a telling match. Collingwood finished in eighth, yet threaten to disturb many sides in finals football. They were left disappointed by the loss, which sent them over to West Coast for a dreaded elimination final. Port’s win made sure they avoid playing Richmond in week one of finals, which is a handy bonus.

Taylor Adams continued to star in Scott Pendlebury’s milestone match for the Pies. Darcy Moore had an enticing battle with Charlie Dixon, while Travis Boak and Tom Rockliff bullied Collingwood in the middle to clinch this tie. In the end, the Power were too strong all over, and will enter the finals full of confidence.

Verdict: A hard loss for the Pies, but they could trouble the Eagles. The Power finished off a wonderful season.

All-Australian Team

During the week the AA team was announced out of the squad of 40, with some controversial decisions. Due to the poor decisions made, here is my attempt at an improved AA side that gives more credit to small forwards, defenders and wingmen.

FB       Brayden Maynard                Harris Andrews                    Brad Sheppard

HB      Caleb Daniel                          Darcy Moore                         Darcy Byrne-Jones

C         Jack Macrae                          Travis Boak (VC)                  Sam Menegola

HF      Patrick Dangerfield              Charlie Dixon                        Christian Petracca

FF       Dan Butler                             Tom Hawkins                        Tom Papley

FOL    Nic Naitanui                          Jack Steele                             Lachie Neale ( C )

INT     Liam Ryan                 Jacob Weitering        Taylor Adams           Jarryd Lyons

Let me know what you think!

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AFL 2020 Round 17 Review, Round 18 Preview: Plenty of teams, one finals spot on the line

The finals race is coming down to the last round. With everything on the line, where does your team stack up?

ROUND 17

St Kilda 6.14 (50) defeated by West Coast 9.11 (65)

A late Eagle surge does the trick

With Jeremy McGovern injured before half-time and other Eagles missing due to injury concerns, it was going to take something brave from West Coast.

When St Kilda fought back in the last quarter to take the lead after a great Rowan Marshall snap goal, the Eagles looked worn out. But Tim Kelly (29 disposals and a goal) performed when his new club needed him most, firing an under-manned midfield to a crucial win. Andrew Gaff also played admirably, while Nic Naitanui fought hard in the ruck, Liam Ryan gave his usual effort down forward and Tom Barrass controlled defensive 50 without McGovern. Hunter Clark and Jack Steele both continued their fine seasons for the Saints, but they had too many passengers when it counted.

Verdict: St Kilda need to find touch in the last round if they are to trouble anyone in the finals, while West Coast just secured a massive four points.

Geelong 4.7 (31) defeated by Richmond 7.15 (57)

The Tigers are the ones to beat

The AFL world went into this clash expecting plenty from the two in-form teams. Unfortunately, Geelong’s solid run came crashing down in a horror Friday night match. Richmond were their impressive selves that we have all come to expect – Jack Riewoldt and Dustin Martin were up to their usual tricks, while Dylan Grimes and Liam Baker were terrific in defence. Only Tom Stewart gave any real sense of defiance to the Richmond wave – Cam Guthrie and Patrick Dangerfield also fought hard in a losing cause.

Jack Riewoldt led the Tigers to a massive win over the Cats (Image by Chris Hyde/ Getty Images)

It may have been a great night for the yellow and black, but the win came at a cost – Ivan Soldo looks to have done a serious injury in his knee, while Tom Lynch also suffered a hamstring injury.

Verdict: A reality check for the Cats, who must click to challenge the Tigers. Richmond are cruising – it’s too hauntingly similar to last year.

North Melbourne 5.5 (35) defeated by Fremantle 15.9 (99)

Despair for the Roos

North Melbourne’s woes have continued to fall. Another ten-goal defeat puts them in danger of snatching the wooden spoon. Todd Goldstein tried his heart out in his 250th match, but Fremantle were too classy all day.

The Roos could barely lay a tackle on the Dockers, as David Mundy and Nat Fyfe troubled the young North Melbourne engine room. Sean Darcy held his own against Goldstein, while Lachie Schultz, Jesse Hogan and Matt Taberner all became dangers in front of the big sticks. In the end, North didn’t have enough firepower to match the Dockers, and quickly fell behind.

Verdict: Plenty of positives for the Dockers, but the Roos are having a nightmare of a year.

Port Adelaide 11.13 (79) defeated Essendon 4.5 (29)

Rediscovering form

Despite being on top of the ladder, Port haven’t been in the best form. They needed this 50-point win. The likes of Tom Rockliff, Travis Boak and Ollie Wines all wound back the clock to create a strong midfield that bullied Essendon all day. Connor Rozee began to flourish, while Karl Amon proved a threat off half-back.

Only Jordan Ridley and Adam Saad thwarted Port Adelaide, as the rest of the Bombers line-up looked tired and sore. It signalled the end of Essendon’s finals push, while highlighting the excitement surrounding Port Adelaide in the coming weeks.

The Power flexed their muscles against the Dons (Image by Daniel Kalisz/ Getty Images)

Verdict: Port will benefit from this. Essendon need to get to the end of the year without any more damage being inflicted.

GWS 11.8 (74) defeated by Melbourne 12.7 (79)

Keeping hopes alive

It was a crazy Saturday night clash – one that defined many clubs’ seasons. Without captain Stephen Coniglio, youngster Tom Green and Jake Kelly stood up in the middle, while Brent Daniels rediscovered his spark up forward. Unfortunately, none of GWS’ tall targets could get past Steven May, while Clayton Oliver and Christian Petracca continued to dominate off the back of Max Gawn’s terrific ruckwork.

GWS are now likely to miss out on finals action, while Melbourne’s topsy-turvy campaign still has life in it with one match to go. They need the Dogs to slip up and a win against the Bombers to give them a shot at eighth spot.

Verdict: GWS keep shooting themselves in the foot – was resigning Leon Cameron done too hastily? Melbourne have plenty of heart, and deserve a go at making finals.

Carlton 8.8 (56) defeated by Adelaide 10.12 (72)

Sending Gibbsy off well

Carlton simply had to win this, but came up against an emotional force on Sunday. Adelaide can’t admit to treating Bryce Gibbs well, but they gave him a great finale to his career. The Crows flogged the Blues in the first half, leading 53 to 9 at the main break. Young Lachie Sholl dominated with 24 touches and two goals, while Harry Schoenberg continued to evolve as a strong midfielder.

After half-time, Carlton managed to bridge some of the gap. Harry McKay fought for four majors, but his teammates weren’t able to peg back the unassailable deficit. With Rory Laird controlling the middle and Gibbs ending with a solid outing, Adelaide did enough to continue their September resurgence.

Bryce Gibbs had a stunning finish to his career (NT News)

Verdict: A disappointing day for the navy Blues, but a treasured afternoon for Gibbs and his Crows.

Hawthorn 6.4 (40) defeated by Western Bulldogs 11.10 (76)

A win that comes with a price

The Dogs looked switched on early, and rode to a four-goal lead at the first break. Unfortunately, their finals chances received a massive blow when strong midfielder Toby McLean went down with a serious knee injury. Yet the Bulldogs weren’t disheartened – Caleb Daniel manipulated the game from half-back, while Marcus Bontempelli, Tom Liberatore, Bailey Smith and Jack Macrae all smacked Hawthorn’s scant midfield.

In a second half comeback, it was veterans in Luke Breust, Liam Shiels and Jack Gunston who were their side’s best. Unfortunately they were too far gone, and the Dogs were able to coast to another important win.

Verdict: Hawthorn will be the team to watch over the off-season, while the Dogs are doing everything right to make finals.

Sydney 6.5 (41) defeated by Brisbane 11.7 (73)

Shaking off dodgy form

It certainly wasn’t pretty, but it was enough. Brisbane continue to win ugly, as a horrible night in Cairns allowed the Swans to stay in the contest. Luke Parker and Jake Lloyd were their usual selves, Justin McInerney continued to shine off the wing, Callum Mills controlled his defence and Ryan Clarke worked hard to shut down Lachie Neale.

Jarrod Berry and the Lions are in good position coming into the finals (Image by Glenn Hunt/ AAP)

All of this wasn’t enough. Zac Bailey is an underrated youngster who has had a terrific year, while Daniel Rich, Dan McStay and Jarryd Lyons all held firm to direct the Lions in the right direction. When Brisbane needed it, Charlie Cameron and Eric Hipwood snagged goals to suggest things may be tracking upwards for the Lions.

Verdict: Sydney continue to fight admirably, while Brisbane have done well to lock in a top-two spot.

Collingwood 10.8 (68) defeated Gold Coast 6.10 (46)

Maligned forwards find form

For Collingwood to stand a chance of running through the 2020 Finals series, they must have their prime players back and in good touch. They went a long way forward on Monday night, as the returns of Jordan De Goey and Adam Treloar fired Collingwood into sixth spot with a round to play.

Despite Alex Sexton’s electric three-goal opening term, the Pies rallied off the back of De Goey’s four majors and Adam Treloar’s dominance in the middle. With Mason Cox proving dangerous all night up forward, Collingwood looked a much better side for it. Wil Powell did everything he could down back, while Lachie Weller ran his heart out all night. Unfortunately, the firepower of Josh Daicos, Darcy Moore and Isaac Quaynor proved too much for the tiring Suns.

Verdict: A last-round hit-out against the Power could tell us lots about the Pies. Gold Coast have plenty of young kids to be excited about, but they are an exhausted list.

ROUND 18

Thursday 7.10PM

Metricon Stadium

North Melbourne v West Coast

Ominous signs for the Roos

In their last stand before the end of a difficult season comes, North Melbourne must ensure they don’t finish on a sour note. It’s hard to do, but they need to end with some confidence still intact if they are to improve through a difficult off-season.

On the other hand, West Coast simply must win. Their recent form has been wayward – a win in Queensland should give them the confidence boost they need on the eve of finals. Expect Tim Kelly to continue his strong form, while Liam Ryan and Josh Kennedy should prove too much up forward.

Tip: This should be one-sided – the poor Roos have nothing to play for. Eagles by 43.

Friday 7.50PM

The Gabba

St Kilda v GWS

Everything to play for

This game is the opposite of Thursday night’s clash. Both teams are fighting – GWS have to win to have a chance of sliding into the top eight, while St Kilda could plummet down to eighth with a loss here.

If Stephen Coniglio is reinstated into the Giants’ midfield, he will have an intriguing battle against Brownlow Medal chance Jack Steele. Josh Kelly can also influence this clash, while it’ll be telling to see whether GWS elect to go with Shane Mumford or Sam Jacobs as ruckman for the big game. Whoever it is, they should have a hard time coming up against Paddy Ryder and Rowan Marshall.

The Saints will be looking to position themselves well for the finals series (Image by Daniel Kalisz/ Getty Images)

Tip: GWS will give everything they can, but it won’t be enough. Saints by 10.

Saturday 2.10PM

Metricon Stadium

Essendon v Melbourne

A belated early season match-up

This game was meant to be held months ago before a COVID-scare pushed it to the last round of the season. It would’ve been an exciting game back then, but it should be a cracker now.

Melbourne must win if they are to have a chance of snatching eighth place. Essendon have been out of form in recent weeks, so the Dees have a prime chance to strike. Can Christian Petracca and Clayton Oliver finish off their brilliant year against Zach Merrett? Will Steven May continue his great form by taking the scalp of Joe Daniher? How will Jordan Ridley handle the versatile Melbourne forward line? It’ll take a fine effort from the Dons to grab this win.

Tip: Essendon can make this close, but I can only see the Demons winning this. Dees by 20.

Saturday 5.10PM

Adelaide Oval

Adelaide v Richmond

The Crows will be looking to beat their 2017 vanquishers (AFC)

Finishing off with some momentum

The Crows have found form late in September – a horror season has been complimented by a superb month of young talent improving and coming to the fore. They’ve been great, but their happy run should end when they come up against the flag favourites.

In a tune-up for finals, Richmond should cruise home. Dustin Martin and Shai Bolton are a versatile combination in the middle that will require some serious contested ball-work from Matt Crouch and Rory Sloane. Dylan Grimes will be hard to handle down back with his intercept marking game, while Noah Balta has a chance to squeeze Taylor Walker out of the match. Also, how will Lachie Scholl handle Richmond ball magnet Trent Cotchin?

Tip: Sorry Adelaide, but the run ends here. Tigers by 35.

Saturday 7.40PM

The Gabba

Brisbane v Carlton

A potential farewell parade

Saturday night will be a tear-jerker. After a rough past month where finals chances flew out of the window, Carlton will bid farewell to a club stalwart. Kade Simpson will hang up the boots after this game, and will receive a massive send-off at the end of this match.

Brisbane now have a top two spot wrapped up, and can tune up for finals with a win here. Lachie Neale has an opportunity to grab three votes and grab a Brownlow Medal, while Charlie Cameron and Eric Hipwood can find the form they desperately need if the Lions are to reach the big dance in 2020.

Tip: Don’t put it past the Blues giving one last effort for Simpson, but my head tells me it’s Brisbane’s game to win. Lions by 15.

Sunday 1.05PM

Adelaide Oval

Hawthorn v Gold Coast

Saying goodbye 2.0

If Saturday night will be a sad one, the retirement of Ben Stratton and Paul Puopolo should be just as sad. Two premiership heroes will retire after facing the Suns, who will be desperate for a win after coming close in recent weeks.

The Hawks will have to out-point the Suns if they are to send their retiring stars out in style (Image by Getty)

Usually, I would go the Suns to finish on a high. But the emotion surrounding the double-retirement could power the Hawks over the line.

Tip: For pure sentimental reasons, I’m going the Hawks by 18.

Sunday 3.35PM

Metricon Stadium

Sydney v Geelong

Restoring faith

Geelong were embarrassed last week. They have fallen off their perch, and must enter the finals with form if they are to finally get past Preliminary Final weekend.

With Gary Ablett Jnr’s return imminent, the Cats should be buoyed. Tom Hawkins can celebrate an easy Coleman Medal win, while Patrick Dangerfield, Mitch Duncan and Sam Menegola can all fight for votes that could become very important in the Brownlow Medal race.

Sydney get one last crack at causing an upset. Don’t put it past their young list, who have shown a remarkable penchant for improvement and dare over the past two months.

Tip: Sydney may push the Cats, yet Geelong have to win this. Cats by 28.

Sunday 6.10PM

Cazaly’s Stadium

Fremantle v Western Bulldogs

Who’s good enough for finals?

It’s the question of the round, and it could be decided on Sunday night. If surrounding teams win, the Dogs have to grab the four points over the Dockers to claim their finals spot.

It definitely won’t be easy – Fremantle have turned into a tough team to play. They have a good group of veterans and some wonderful talent that has shone through in 2020. If Matt Taberner and Jesse Hogan can get on top once again, it becomes critical that the Dogs win the midfield battle. How much of an impact will Toby McLean’s injury have on their contested ball work? Can Caleb Serong claim the Rising Star with another big performance?

Matt Taberner has had a great year, and can finish it off with a big night against the Dogs (Image by Richard Wainwright AAP)

Tip: The Dockers will turn this into a scrap, but the Bont’s Dogs should just win. Bulldogs by 7.

Monday 7.15PM

The Gabba

Collingwood v Port Adelaide

An exciting test

It’ll be an exhausting weekend of footy, but we will all get a great game to finish. Collingwood can avoid a dreaded trip out west in week one of the finals if they beat the Power here. Port have already ruled out Tom Clurey for the clash, and could take a conservative approach to rest up for finals.

If this happens, Jordan De Goey and his Pies could strike. Mason Cox has a massive chance to head into finals with form under his belt, while Darcy Moore can take plenty of confidence out of beating Charlie Dixon on the verge of finals.

Tip: This is tough. Normally, Port would win this. But the circumstances lend me to going with Collingwood. Pies by 15.

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AFL 2020 Round 16 Review, Round 17 Preview: Top four settles, but top eight is up in the air

From the Crows’ revival to the Eagles’ fall from premiership favouritism, Round 16 taught us plenty about what lies ahead this season. With only two rounds left to determine a top eight, it looks like it’ll come down to the wire.

ROUND 16

North Melbourne 6.6 (42) defeated by Port Adelaide 11.12 (78)

The Power do enough

It sure wasn’t pretty, but Port overcame their shaky recent form to post another win that could secure them the minor premiership. It all came courtesy of Brownlow Medal fancy Travis Boak, who racked up 34 touches and nine clearances alongside Ollie Wines (30 disposals and seven clearances) and Tom Rockliff (31).

North had no answer in the middle of the ground, with only Luke Davies-Uniacke (16 contested disposals) offering some defiance. Ben McKay also did well to keep Charlie Dixon to two goals, while Robbie Tarrant and Jed Anderson fought hard. The game ended on a sour note for the Power, who will lose star youngster Zak Butters for two matches after a high bump that left Jy Simpkin out of the game due to concussion.

Verdict: North have now only won one game since round four – a worrying trend. Port aren’t looking great, but they are still on track for top spot.

St Kilda 11.14 (80) defeated Hawthorn 9.12 (66)

Saints book a spot

They aren’t officially a lock for finals, but they are only inches away from it. St Kilda managed to win ugly without tall forwards Max King and Tim Membrey, as Rowan Marshall stepped up in attack with two majors. Bradley Hill has had a wonderful second half to the season, this time collecting 22 touches and seven score involvements, while fellow recruit Zak Jones (22 touches and a goal) was at his confident best.

The Saints did enough to fall over the line against the Hawks (Image by Dave Hunt/ AAP)

James Worpel was lost early due to a shoulder injury, but Brownlow Medallist Tom Mitchell (27 disposals and a goal) performed admirably in a midfield that was soundly beaten by the Saints. Hawthorn had no way of stopping Seb Ross and Hill, while Nick Coffield and Ben Long controlled everything across half-back in an inspiring display for Saints fans who can taste finals action around the corner.

Verdict: Much like Port, St Kilda are winning despite being out of form. Hawthorn need this horror season to end quickly.

Geelong 17.6 (108) defeated Essendon 5.12 (42)

A miserable day for the red and black

For all Essendon fans full of hope for an upset that could set up a finals charge, they would have been despondent at half time. An early burst never left the Bombers with a chance – a Sam Menegola exhibition left the red and black behind by 10 goals at the main break. Once again Tom Hawkins fired, booting four to head the Coleman Medal race, and Tom Stewart was terrific down back. Everything went right for the Cats – Jed Bews snuck forward for two majors, Patrick Dangerfield did his usual thing, and Grian Miers continued to threaten defences with a neat haul of three goals.

It was a dirty day for Essendon, made even worse when Irving Mosquito fell to an ACL injury. Zach Merrett and Darcy Parish did everything they could in the centre, while Sam Draper showed signs once again in the ruck, but it was all to no avail.

Verdict: The Cats are a big chance to go all the way this year. Essendon need to find their identity before returning next season without John Worsfold.

Western Bulldogs 6.13 (49) defeated West Coast 7.5 (47)

Shaking up the top eight

After claiming plenty of wins at home, people expected West Coast to return to the Gold Coast in better condition. Unfortunately, another loss has left them in trouble of falling away in 2020.

Many teams around the eight were left groaning when Marcus Bontempelli steered through a booming set shot goal from outside the 50 metre arc, as it gave the Dogs prime position to make the finals. The Eagles had no answer for Jack Macrae (29 disposals), Josh Dunkley (22) and Caleb Daniel (25) all night, as they all won plenty of the ball to frustrate their opponents.

It was only the underrated Jack Redden and Liam Duggan who gave West Coast a chance, but they couldn’t convert when it mattered.

Jeremy McGovern couldn’t help his Eagles hold on (WCE FC)

Verdict: The Dogs are capable of causing a stir come finals time, while West Coast are now in danger of slipping outside the top four.

Melbourne 4.9 (33) defeated by Fremantle 6.11 (47)

A dour win that could end a season

It’s been a frustrating year for the Dees. They started off dismally, only to rally and recapture their 2018 form. The resulting surge up the ladder was cruelly met by another drop-off. Now, they could be done for the season.

In their second loss in five days, Melbourne just couldn’t hit the scoreboard. They only kicked one major to half time, and finished with four. Clayton Oliver and Christian Petracca tried their hearts out in the midfield, but none of their teammates followed suit. The return of Michael Walters was sealed with an influential three goal performance, as he led a bunch of veterans and youngsters on their way.

Freo should be excited by the depth they now have – names like Caleb Serong, Adam Cerra and Andrew Brayshaw have been consistent performers all year, and could form the Freo spine for years to come.

Verdict: It’s a sour note for Melbourne to end like this. Fremantle can look ahead to 2021 and the improvement that’s just around the corner.

Adelaide 8.11 (59) defeated GWS 7.5 (47)

Are the Giants done?

It’s been a week of upheaval in terms of finals plans, but GWS shot themselves in the foot after being destroyed by the Crows in the middle. The experienced Giants’ midfield had no answer for Rory Laird (11 clearances), the Crouch brothers and Rory Sloane. Lachie Whitfield played a lone hand for GWS, while Tim Taranto also worked hard.

The Crows look to be a changed side. Elliott Himmelberg had a wonderful night as a tall forward/ ruck, and Shane McAdam lit up the Adelaide Oval while adding another big mark to his growing highlight reel. Reilly O’Brien also recovered from a poor start to 2020, beating his former teammate Sam Jacobs in the ruck.

Verdict: Adelaide, after a rough year, are coming out of it ok. GWS may not be as talented as everyone thought they were.

The Crows were back to their best after upsetting GWS (AFL)

Carlton 8.9 (57) defeated Sydney 8.4 (52)

A mega comeback

It looked to be the same old story for Carlton. Weeks of improvement was about to be ruined by a horrible half, where they were left trailing the Swans by seven goals. Luckily, late majors got them into the game, and a second half surge kicked them over the line.

The star was Matthew Cottrell – the larrakin took a great contested mark before slamming home the winning goal and celebrating wildly. Lewis Taylor had the chance to level the scores in the final minute after a contentious high free kick, but he missed the shot to condemn Sydney to a horror loss.

Sam Walsh was easily the best player on the ground, racking up 25 touches and gaining 584 metres. Tom McCartin continued his strong form as a defender against Harry McKay, while Patrick Cripps led his side back into the game with some strong contested ball work. The Blues may not make finals, but this win was big for morale.

Verdict: It’s (only just) not all doom and gloom for the Blues. Sydney have a bright future, but this’ll hurt.

Brisbane 13.10 (88) defeated Gold Coast 6.7 (43)

Lions outclass Suns

From the opening quarter, it was clear who was going to win this Q-Clash. Brisbane were in scintillating touch, and moved a step closer to a top two spot.

Lachie Neale was at his impressive best, while Cam Rayner slotted three goals (and missed out on a gettable fourth) and Dayne Zorko reminded all of what he is capable of. Eric Hipwood and Charlie Cameron both dominated up forward, and Daniel Rich marshalled a defence lacking Harris Andrews.

The Suns had no way of answering – Brandon Ellis and Noah Anderson both fought hard in the middle, but they came up against a force too strong.

Verdict: Brisbane can build upon this strong platform, while Gold Coast should hold their head high after an impressive season.

ROUND 17

Thursday 7.10PM

The Gabba

St Kilda v West Coast

An interesting test

This game comes at an interesting time.

Both sides are out of form and need a win in Queensland before finals time. What I’m looking at is the forward lines of both teams. Will Josh Kennedy and Jack Darling step up to held Liam Ryan out, or will it be the return of Max King and Tim Membrey that sparks the Saints?

In a finals series that’ll be determined by reliable players in tough moments, it’s critical for either side to find firm ground up forward. Without a tall forward firing, it’s going to be hard to go far in season 2020.

Tip: It’s been an ugly fortnight up north, but the Eagles should finally break their Queensland hoodoo, just. Eagles by 8.

Friday 7.50PM

Metricon Stadium

Geelong v Richmond

Who’s the best team?

It could well be a Grand Final preview. The two in-form teams of the competition square off on Friday night footy. It’s an exciting clash us Victorians need. Richmond are coasting along, having rediscovered their system and picking up some new youngsters along the way. But Geelong are mature and strong all over the park.

Here’s some key battles to think about – can Shai Bolton and Dustin Martin trouble Sam Menegola, Mitch Duncan and Patrick Dangerfield? Will Tom Hawkins be matched athletically by Noah Balta? Is Mark Blicavs going to return to the back 50 to nullify Tom Lynch?

Tip: Who knows. Both sides are in great condition and should produce a cracker. I’m going to go Geelong due to their wonderful form of late, but I’m ready to be wrong. Cats by 10.

Can the Cats upstage the reigning premiers? (GFC)

Saturday 2.10PM

Metricon Stadium

North Melbourne v Fremantle

Can the Roos make a late stand?

North Melbourne need to end this run of disappointment. The only way to get their tail out from between their legs is to win. Fremantle have been superb in the second half of 2020, having found a nucleus of young players who could carry the club forward in years to come. It’s going to be hard for North Melbourne to stop the list of names – Mundy, Fyfe, Walters, Serong, Cerra, Brayshaw.

The main comparison I’m looking at is that of the two young forwards on either side. Matt Taberner has been great all year, and will face a challenge when lining up on Robbie Tarrant. Up the other end, Nick Larkey has done very well since coming back into the fold, and will need to star once again if he is to carry the Roos over the line without Ben Brown or Majak Daw. Also, it’s a great test for young Sean Darcy when he comes up against Todd Goldstein.

Tip: North deserve to break through, but I’m hesitant to go for them. Freo by 22.

Saturday 5.05PM

Adelaide Oval

Port Adelaide v Essendon

One last chance

It’s been a bad week for the Dons, but it could all be fixed by an upset. With Conor McKenna announcing his retirement, Essendon need to send him off in grand style. Can a win against the ladder leaders do so?

It’s going to be tough to break through. At the Adelaide Oval, expect Charlie Dixon to fire up. The likes of Darcy Parish and Zach Merrett will have to play blinders if they are to trump Boak, Rockliff and Wines. Even without Butters, Port have enough weaponry in their arsenal to win this one, unless big Joe Daniher returns to the side and changes the momentum once again.

Having already lost Irving Mosquito to injury, the Bombers have a tough task ahead (AFL)

Tip: Essendon are a team likely to surprise us when we least expect them to, but I can’t see it happening here. Port by 15.

Saturday 7.40PM

The Gabba

GWS v Melbourne

One spot on the line

This is it – one of these teams will be sent packing after Saturday night. The loser can count themselves out of finals contention, the winner gets to play for it again next week.

You can’t expect Stephen Coniglio, Toby Greene, Nick Haynes and Lachie Whitfield to all let their side slip off the radar, but they have struggled to control their team all season. Christian Petracca and Clayton Oliver will always work hard for the Dees, and they should have the right match-ups for GWS’ many tall forwards.

Tip: I can easily see the Giants snatching this one, but something about Melbourne tells me they can reverse their form to end GWS’ season. Dees by 7.

Sunday 1.05PM

Metricon Stadium

Carlton v Adelaide

Upset 3.0?

The Crows will have to travel for this one, but their new-found bond could be enough to ruin Carlton’s day. The Blues can’t gift Adelaide a seven-goal start like they did to the Swans. Cripps, Ed Curnow and Walsh all need to be on from the first bounce, while Levi Casboult and Harry McKay need to crash packs and create havoc up forward. Expect Jacob Weitering to hold down the back end, unless McAdam or Tyson Stengle get busy at ground level, in which case Sam Docherty must clamp down on them.

It won’t be easy for Carlton, but if they can prove solid enough in the middle to stop Laird and the Crouch brothers then they can walk away with a win.

The Blues will be looking to back up their thrilling win against the Crows (Getty)

Tip: Adelaide’s run of form has been impressive, but it should end here. Blues by 20.

Sunday 3.35PM

Adelaide Oval

Hawthorn v Western Bulldogs

A massive chance for the Dogs

They have to win this. Hawthorn are capable of causing upsets, but this should be too much of an ask for the out-of-form side.

The only eyes I have on Hawthorn are to look at the growth of Will Day, Mitch Lewis and Tom Mitchell. If the two youngsters can continually get involved, and if Mitchell can find his feet and confidence yet again, then it’s a tick for the Hawks.

On the other end, expect the Dogs to play their high-possession game and utilise every midfielder. Expect Josh Dunkley to play once again as a midfielder/ruckman. What impact can he have? Will the Dogs half-back line continue to flourish?

Tip: Hawthorn are good at crashing parties, but I can only see the Dogs getting up here. Bulldogs by 26.

Sunday 6.10PM

Cazaly’s Stadium

Sydney v Brisbane

Spoiling the hometown team?

Brisbane are winning, but they aren’t in great form. Their game plan revolves around amassing many shots at goal, regardless of the inaccuracy – will Charlie Cameron and Eric Hipwood finally step up?

Sydney will have a tough task stopping the midfield of the Lions – can Oliver Florent, Luke Parker and Josh Kennedy match it with Lachie Neale, Dayne Zorko and Jarryd Lyons? Also, who will go with Jarrod Berry and Hugh McCluggage?

Can the Lions become a finals threat? (Image by Bradley Kanaris/ Getty Images)

Tip: The Swans have a nice side, but Brisbane will grab this one. Lions by 15.

Monday 7.10PM

The Gabba

Collingwood v Gold Coast

A must-win

The Pies will be thanking their lucky stars after losses to Melbourne and GWS helped their finals hopes. What’s intriguing in this game is the line-ups.

Will we see Jordan De Goey or Adam Treloar back? How far away are Jeremy Howe and Tom Langdon? Their fortunes depend on who they can get back into the fold before finals, so it will be interesting to watch. Come game time, the Pies need to find a match for Jack Lukosius. All eyes lead to Brody Mihocek as the likely option to lock him down, while Collingwood need to ensure they get Jaidyn Stephenson confident and in-form. There will be some great battles between Darcy Moore and Ben King – this could be one of the first.

Tip: Gold Coast, off a rest, could threaten the Pies, but I’m expecting them to be strong enough when it matters. Collingwood by 21.

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AFL 2020 Round 15 Review, Round 16 Preview: Defining the eight and upsetting the favourites

The shorter mid-week Round 15 is done and dusted, leaving some sides now out of the finals race after a week of upsets. What will the weekend hold in store as we close in on the end of the season?

ROUND 15

Hawthorn 7.6 (48) defeated by Adelaide 12.11 (83)

The Crows break through

It was a win badly needed for the sake of the languishing Adelaide Crows. As talk surrounded whether they’d go through the year without a win, Adelaide unleashed a stunning burst on Tuesday to smack the Hawks.

The renaissance of the Crouch brothers did plenty of damage in the guts, while Reilly O’Brien and Ben Keays were terrific in the clinches. Up forward, Tyson Stengle produced some livewire football to set up multiple goals for Darcy Fogarty and Taylor Walker, while young Harry Schoenberg continued his terrific start to his career with two majors.

For the Hawks, only Jack Scrimshaw provided any resistance down back as they leaked points in disappointing loss.

Verdict: It’s only getting worse for the Hawks, while Adelaide can finally have a week of celebration.

West Coast 9.6 (60) defeated Essendon 6.9 (45)

Essendon miss a golden chance

If the Dons were to surge into the finals, they had to snatch matches like these. West Coast were clearly off – only Liam Ryan’s four goals, Andrew Gaff’s presence in the middle and Brad Sheppard’s fine form down back kept them ahead of the game. When the opportunity arose, Essendon butchered their shot. Only Anthony McDonald-Tipungwuti (4 goals) stood up in attacking fifty, as Joe Daniher had an understandable quiet night.

Jack Darling may have snagged two, but the Eagles lacked precision without Josh Kennedy filling the full-forward role. The Bombers have a lot to like – Zach Merrett continued his great season, while Dylan Shiel, Kyle Langford and Jordan Ridley all tried valiantly in a losing cause.

Verdict: The Eagles are struggling away from home, but are doing enough to fall over the line against wasteful opponents.

Richmond 8.8 (56) defeated Fremantle 4.5 (29)

Much like the night before, Richmond didn’t set the world on fire up in the Gold Coast. Luckily, they have a system that can pull them over the line on bad nights. Tom Lynch didn’t touch the footy much, but when he did he scored. Jayden Short and Bachar Houli controlled half-back for the Tigers, and it restricted Fremantle to only four goals. Richmond fans will be delighted by the improvement of Marlion Pickett and Jack Graham.

The Eagles were all over the Bombers during the week (West Coast FC)

The Dockers were pulled along by youth. Caleb Serong had a great night against the reigning premiers, while Andrew Brayshaw, Adam Cerra and Blake Acres could all hold their heads eye after matching the hardened Richmond midfielders.

Verdict: The Dockers will have these nights with so many youngsters, but Richmond are ominously hovering along.

Sydney 10.7 (67) defeated Melbourne 6.10 (46)

Youth does the damage

If the previous nights were sloppy, this match had plenty of explosiveness from one side. Sydney will be disappointed by their 2020 campaign, but they will also finish the season full of optimism after blooding a number of performing youngsters. In previous games, Nick Blakey, James Rowbottom, Oliver Florent, Tom McCartin and Dylan Stephens have all had breakout games. On Thursday, it was Justin McInerney’s turn.

The wingman snagged his first two goals in a couple of minutes while delivering well inside forward 50. With Luke Parker and Josh Kennedy catching the Demons unaware, Melbourne had no room for poor form. Unfortunately they were woefully poor – even Ed Langdon’s hard-running was let down by some wasteful skills.

Verdict: Sydney have a wonderful base for the future – Melbourne have fallen away badly.

Melbourne were crushed by the Swans (Image by Ian Hitchcock/ Getty Images)

GWS 6.12 (48) defeated Carlton 5.9 (39)

One quarter changes everything

It wasn’t the first time GWS has turned around a dismal night to grab the lead late. In a topsy-turvy season, it was their most important effort.

Carlton were all over the Giants early courtesy of Sam Walsh’s blistering work and the consistent performances of Marc Murphy and Jack Martin. Despite Jacob Weitering locking down Jeremy Cameron to just seven touches, the Giants had other weapons.

Despite kicking only two goals to three-quarter-time, GWS snagged four in the last (two coming from the exciting boot of Jake Riccardi) to win by nine points. It wasn’t clean, but the intensity from Nick Haynes and Toby Greene willed last year’s Grand Finalists into the top eight.

Verdict: The Giants could finish eighth despite poor form. Carlton are a good team, but have missed the chance to play finals footy.

GWS weren’t great, but they were good enough (Image by Chris Hyde/ Getty Images)

Brisbane 6.6 (42) defeated Collingwood 5.4 (34)

A scrappy contest to the end

It wasn’t pretty, but it was enthralling in a strange way.

Brisbane seized control with a five-goal second term, as Jarryd Lyon and Jarrod Berry impressed all night through the midfield. Eric Hipwood managed to get off the chain to snag two goals, while Oscar McInerney had a night out against Brodie Grundy. But the Pies found momentum in the second half courtesy of some impressive efforts from John Noble, Jack Crisp and Jamie Elliott. With Brayden Maynard and Taylor Adams bringing the toughness to balance out Josh Daicos’ skills, Collingwood came home with a wet sail. Unfortunately only Mason Cox provided a target up forward, and the Pies couldn’t score when it counted.

Verdict: Brisbane may have won, but they need improvement from their stars if they are to go anywhere in September. Collingwood squandered a good chance at cementing a finals spot, but with stars coming back soon they could be a force in the finals.

ROUND 16

Saturday 7.40PM

Metricon Stadium

North Melbourne v Port Adelaide

A must-win for the Power

The Roos have had a stinker. If they can interrupt the ladder-leader’s charge into the finals, they can take some solace into next season.

Port Adelaide haven’t been setting the house on fire, but they should win. Charlie Dixon is coming along – can the trio of Zak Butters, Xavier Duursma and Connor Rozee all lead the Power towards a potential push at a flag?

Tip: The Roos may surprise some with their effort, but I expect it to fall just short. Power by 18.

Sunday 1.05PM

Metricon Stadium

St Kilda v Hawthorn

What are the Hawks made of?

It’s a great question. Hawthorn have fallen away horrifically after a decent start to 2020. With an ageing list, many players are playing for their careers in 2021 and beyond.

The Saints need to win this if they are to lock away a top eight spot. There’s a lot on the line – will finals or general pride mean more in this contest? It’ll be an intriguing battle between Hawthorn’s midfield in Tom Mitchell, James Worpel and Jaeger O’Meara against Seb Ross, the in-form Jack Steele and Zak Jones.

Hawthorn must bounce back after a horror year (Image by Will Russell/ AFL Photos/ Getty Images)

Tip: Hawthorn should perform better than last week. Unfortunately, the Saints simply must put this one away. St Kilda by 25.

Sunday 3.35PM

The Gabba

Geelong v Essendon

Last chance for the Bombers

If the Bombers are serious about squeezing into eighth, they need an upset. They have done well against the Cats in recent years, snaring some upsets when it has counted. With skipper Dyson Heppell working his way back alongside Joe Daniher, they must produce a blinder if they are to dismiss the Cats.

Geelong are doing enough to win – can anyone from Essendon stop Patrick Dangerfield, or will the Bombers allow Zach Merrett to battle it out against him?

Tip: Essendon will be spirited, but the Cats are too classy. Geelong by 23.

Sunday 6.10PM

Metricon Stadium

Western Bulldogs v West Coast

An interesting encounter

West Coast aren’t travelling particularly well interstate, so this could be close. The Eagles will need to play much better to beat the Dogs, who are finding some decent form as the season nears its end.

Watch the midfield – can Tim Kelly, Andrew Gaff and Dom Sheed perform better to match Marcus Bontempelli, Lachie Hunter, Jack Macrae and Josh Dunkley? Also, how well can Tim English manage to nullify Nic Naitanui?

The Bulldogs have a great chance to snatch eighth spot (Image by Scott Barbour/ AAP)

Tip: The Dogs should take this right down to the wire – I can see them snatching this. But my head tells me to trust West Coast. Eagles by 5.

Monday 7.10PM

Cazaly’s Stadium

Melbourne v Fremantle

Can the Dockers ruin the Dees?

The Dockers are coming off a rusty few weeks. They are tired, but are capable of upsetting Melbourne. I expect Christian Petracca and Clayton Oliver to lift under the pressure of Serong and Nat Fyfe. They have to if they want to play finals – will Sam Weideman or Matt Taberner be the most dominant forward?

Tip: It’s a tough one. Melbourne must win, even if the Dockers are capable of upsetting them. Melbourne by 16.

Tuesday 5.40PM

Adelaide Oval

Adelaide v GWS

Are the Giants a finals side?

Can the Crows do it again?

Adelaide will be buoyed on by their maiden win (Image by James Elsby/ AFL Photos/ Getty Images)

This one will be much tougher. They may be inspired after such a great win, but now Stephen Coniglio, Lachie Whitfield, Nick Haynes, Toby Greene and Jake Riccardi should all be too good for the Crouch brothers and Rory Sloane.

Tip: Sorry Adelaide, but the honeymoon may be over. GWS by 33.

Tuesday 8.10PM

Metricon Stadium

Carlton v Sydney

Are the Swans consistently improving?

Here is Sydney’s chance to set up their 2021 campaign. With many experienced players raring to come into the side next year, they will have a selection headache if their youngsters continue to play so well. Carlton need to break through – they’ve played well in patches recently, but must put together a four-quarter effort. It’s a big day for Patrick Cripps – he should lead from the front.

Tip: Sydney could snatch this, but Carlton deserve to finally put it all together. Blues by 12.

Wednesday 7.10PM

The Gabba

Brisbane v Gold Coast

An interesting Q-clash

The Suns will go into this one confident. Fresh off a break and with some exciting talent, they could challenge the tired Lions, who aren’t used to a short interval between matches. Hugh Greenwood and Jarryd Lyons going head-to-head will be a spectacle for lovers of contested work – which bull can win more footy? Eric Hipwood and Charlie Cameron need to build if they are to propel Brisbane forward in the finals.

Tip: Let’s go for a wild one. Brisbane should win, but something about the shorter break screams Gold Coast. Suns by 2.

Byes: Collingwood, Richmond

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AFL 2020 Round 14 Review, Round 15 Preview: A telling few weeks for top eight fancies

The battle for a top eight spot is heating up, and last weekend defined an exciting month ahead. Now eyes turn to Round 15 – which teams will firm up a spot and who will fall out of contention?

ROUND 14

Hawthorn 10.11 (71) defeated by Essendon 13.9 (87)

Big Joe sparks a frenzy

Essendon were a long way off on Thursday evening.

Halfway through the third term the Bombers sat six goals behind the Hawks, who had battled strongly due to the influence of Ben McEvoy and James Worpel. But when Andrew McGrath’s (32 touches) effort in the middle finally changed the momentum, Joe Daniher benefited. He was everywhere – sliding into a mark and goal. Curling through a snap in the pocket, before slamming through the sealer. This was surrounded by pack marks and athleticism; Daniher’s presence changed the dynamic of Essendon’s forward line. It was a disappointing second half for the Hawks, who had no answer for Daniher and McGrath’s dominance throughout the match.

Essendon were inspired by the return of Joe Daniher (Image by James Elsby/ AFL Photos/ Getty Images)

Verdict: Hawthorn let slip a golden chance to continue building, while the Bombers have the ingredients to threaten on the run home.

Richmond 14.4 (88) defeated West Coast 9.7 (61)

Are the Tigers flag favourites?

It’s the question on many people’s lips. Just like last year, the Tigers are heating up at the right time. Against one of their greatest challengers, Richmond flew away off the back of accurate kicking and Trent Cotchin’s masterful performance in the middle. With Bachar Houli returning and Noah Balta continuing his hot streak down back, Richmond had all the answers when it counted.

West Coast fought valiantly – Tim Kelly and Andrew Gaff were tough all night, but couldn’t crack through Richmond’s stingy defence enough. When the Tigers did surge forward, they looked slick and overwhelming. It’s danger signs.

Verdict: Richmond are in a perfect spot. West Coast need to work to continue their good run of form.

Western Bulldogs 9.7 (61) defeated Geelong 10.12 (72)

Mature Cats survive a mighty scare

In a tight clash, the Dogs had all the momentum in the early stages. Their deep midfield out-hunted the Cats, while their defence rebounded superbly. Chief instigators included Lachie Hunter, Bailey Smith and Josh Dunkley in the middle, with Hayden Crozier and Caleb Daniel using the ball smartly off half-back. But Dunkley’s ruck rotations cruelled the Dog’s momentum, and Geelong worked back into the contest.

Patrick Dangerfield was the instigator in the comeback, as he and Cam Guthrie won the clearance battle convincingly. When Gary Rohan and Tom Hawkins got off the chain late, Geelong stormed away to snatch a massive win.

Gary Rohan was crucial in Geelong’s comeback win (Image by Julian Smith/ AAP)

Verdict: The Dogs let a crucial game slip. Geelong have the mettle to challenge Richmond in the finals.

Port Adelaide 11.7 (73) defeated Sydney 7.5 (47)

Rusty Port push past the Swans

It wasn’t pretty, but it was important. The Power remained on top of the ladder through sheer determination. Sydney brought their trademark intensity all day; Jordan Dawson was terrific, while Tom McCartin switched back to cover Charlie Dixon and held his own in the second half.

But their smaller frames couldn’t match the bullish work done by Robbie Gray and Ollie Wines. With Travis Boak and Tom Rockliff also feeding off superb rucking from Scott Lycett, the Power always held enough cards to win this one.

Port Adelaide were forced to work hard for their win on Saturday (PAFC)

Verdict: The Power are doing enough, but need to build up form again. Sydney are giving everything; only good things are on the horizon for 2021.

Fremantle 8.5 (53) defeated by GWS 14.7 (91)

Riccardi and Cameron make hay

It was a must-win clash for the Giants, and some tall timber shone through finally.

The key came when Stephen Coniglio and Lachie Whitfield broke free. Their prolific games in the midfield resulted in efficient delivery up forward, and it brought Jeremy Cameron and second-gamer Jake Riccardi into the mix. Both slotted four in an impressive tandem display – have the Giants found a new key forward?

The Dockers tried their hard out, led by David Mundy, who is in the midst of an underrated campaign. It just wasn’t their day.

Verdict: An understandable step back for the young Dockers. GWS needed this – can they make a late charge?

Melbourne 8.4 (52) defeated St Kilda 7.7 (49)

Super Christian wins a thriller

This match stayed neck-and-neck all night, only to be decided by a controversial goal.

The score came courtesy of Christian Petracca, who starred with four majors and a show of strength in the guts. His last goal came after fighting off three Saints defenders to throw the ball on his boot. As it trickled over the line, the lack of goal side cameras meant the review rejected a despairing St Kilda hand. It was a crucial decision – Petracca got to be the hero off the back of Steven May’s terrific intercept match down back, while Jack Steele’s valiant effort for the Saints came up short. Now, they are back in the pack of teams trying to find a top eight spot.

The Dees and Saints locked horns in a tantalising match (MDFC)

Verdict: Petracca is a Brownlow smokey – his improvement has been extraordinary. St Kilda are faltering at a bad time, and someone needs to join Steele in doing the hard work.

Carlton 7.6 (48) defeated by Collingwood 10.12 (72)

Smooth Pies rise up

It was a win the Pies needed. After weeks of sloppiness and low scores, Collingwood finally played an attacking brand of footy that overran the Blues.

In a highly-touted clash between two rivals, Carlton pulled away late in the second term off the back of efficient forward play and some smart ball usage from Sam Walsh. But with Patrick Cripps and Eddie Betts falling quiet, Collingwood warmed up to the task. Their vaunted defence, led by Darcy Moore, Jack Crisp, Brayden Maynard, John Noble and Isaac Quaynor, stifled the Blues and rebounded with precision. Mason Cox and Brody Mihocek rediscovered their forward chemistry, while Jamie Elliott and Taylor Adams seized control in the middle. Perhaps the best was Josh Daicos – his game summed up a terrific year for the budding star.

Brodie Grundy and his Pies rose higher than the Blues when it mattered (CFC)

Verdict: The Blues let one slip with a terrible second half. Collingwood are hanging in and doing everything right.

Gold Coast 12.19 (91) defeated North Melbourne 4.4 (28)

Youth beats uncertainty

The Suns have been pushing for a win in the past month, but have been unlucky not to claim points. On Sunday, they finally snatched their chance. Ben Ainsworth continued his great form, while Noah Anderson and Hugh Greenwood won all contested balls in the centre. When it went down forward, Lachie Weller threatened on the flank and Izak Rankine looked as dangerous as ever.

Despite Robbie Tarrant and Luke McDonald fighting hard again, Alex Sexton broke free to snag four goals. It’s worrying times for the Roos – only Jed Anderson and Jy Simpkin could hold their heads high – a tale that sums up North Melbourne’s dismal season.

Verdict: A validating win for the Suns. North have some bright stars, but the lack of even contribution is a killer.

ROUND 15

Tuesday 5.40PM

Adelaide Oval

Hawthorn v Adelaide

Is now the time for the Crows?

Adelaide won’t have many more chances to snag a maiden win for the season. They’ve loaded up for this clash – Daniel Talia and Brad Crouch are welcomed back in to give the Crows the boost they need.

But the Hawks have some experience in too – can McEvoy continue his good form and out-point Reilly O’Brien? Hawthorn know they’ll have to match Adelaide’s intensity if they are to claim this win.

Tip: Adelaide will throw everything at the Hawks, but the brown and gold should win if they replicate their first half form from last week. Hawks by 18.

Tuesday 8.10PM

The Gabba

West Coast v Essendon

The strengthened Bombers can test the Eagles

It won’t be easy for the Eagles. They must win if they are to shake off any interstate wobbles. But to win they must replace Josh Kennedy and Jamie Cripps up forward – no mean feat.

The Bombers have some experience back in Dyson Heppell and Michael Hurley. It’s their best team they’ve put up all year – can the Bombers produce an almighty upset?

Can the Eagles find form up north? (WCFC)

Tip: Essendon are capable of winning this, but it’s just too much of a risk to back them in. Eagles by 13.

Wednesday 7.10PM

Metricon Stadium

Richmond v Fremantle

A test against the best

Coming off a demoralising home loss, Fremantle can look at this match positively. The likes of Andrew Brayshaw, Matt Taberner and Caleb Serong will get to test out their skills against the strongest all-round team in the competition.

Richmond continue to improve, and should be ominous for any team they face.

Tip: Freo can try hard, but it won’t be enough. Tigers by 28.

Thursday 4.40PM

Cazaly’s Stadium

Sydney v Melbourne

A case of who works hardest, wins

Melbourne know they must win this, but it won’t come easy. They’ll be drained after the weekend’s exhilarating finish, and are facing a Sydney side full of grit. With Josh Kennedy back crashing into packs, the Swans have a chance if they use the ball well.

But Melbourne have class – expect Petracca and Max Gawn to have big nights if the Demons get up.

The Demons, off the back of a scalp, must consolidate against the Swans (AFL)

Tip: Melbourne are good enough and should account for Sydney’s weaknesses in the talls department. Dees by 25.

Thursday 7.10PM

Metricon Stadium

GWS v Carlton

An early Elimination Final

This is it. One of these sides will be gone from finals contention after this. Carlton are basically teetering, but they can take a scalp with them if they crash the Giants’ party.

All eyes will be on whether the in-form Josh Kelly can recover from his injury in time. If not, Cripps and Ed Curnow could exploit their midfield if they are on song. It’s a big week for Jacob Weitering and Liam Jones – after getting their colours lowered by Collingwood’s talls, they must nullify the in-form Cameron and Riccardi if they are to challenge.

Tip: I can see the Blues snatching this, but the Giants could have just turned a corner. GWS by 11.

Eddie Betts must be at his best if the Blues are to beat the Giants (AFL)

Friday 7.50PM

The Gabba

Brisbane v Collingwood

An interesting test

This is the game of the round. Brisbane are shaky, and are slipping down the ladder. They must find motivation if they are to work past the Pies at home. Collingwood are warming up at the right time – can Eric Hipwood and Charlie Cameron break through their defence enough to win this?

Expect the Pies to consider bringing in Levi Greenwood to tag Lachie Neale. If this happens, it’ll be an exciting battle between Taylor Adams and Jarryd Lyons – two in-form bulls who excel in finding the footy. Also, who will take Jaidyn Stephenson, and can Cox continue his great form to nullify Harris Andrews’ marking game?

Tip: I’d normally go the Lions, but they may face a big challenge. They should be a strong chance due to the longer break, but I’m not convinced on their form while the Pies match up well against them. Collingwood by 8.

Byes: Gold Coast, North Melbourne, Port Adelaide, Western Bulldogs, Geelong, St Kilda

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